“North-America and Europe sailings are short of cargo almost across the board and freight keeps sliding,” Wang Zhicong, head of a Shenzhen forwarder, told Yicai. Apart from South-East Asia—where typhoon-induced port congestion has produced a short-term spike in rates and rolled containers—most lanes are in off-season oversupply, he said.

       Dongfang Jincheng macro director Feng Lin attributes October’s negative export print to a high base last year and two fewer working days this October. “The key driver is the ongoing shock of U.S. high tariffs on global trade and Chinese exports,” she said. China’s shipments to the U.S. plunged 25.2 % YoY in October, knocking 3.8 percentage points off headline export growth.

       Customs data show October exports to the EU, Japan, ASEAN and Belt & Road economies growing 0.9 %, –5.7 %, 11.0 % and 2.8 % respectively, all slower than September once base effects are stripped out.

  U.S. buyers front-load for Christmas  

       Yang Chang, chief analyst at Zhongtai Securities, notes the YoY fall in U.S.-bound exports narrowed and non-U.S. lanes are wobbling. Since early October, SCFI and Ningbo’s container indices have bottomed out. Ningbo-U.S. East- and West-Coast and Tianjin-U.S. rates are creeping up, hinting at a U.S. rebound. European and Japanese indices remain soft, while Australasian lanes look firm; ASEAN, Middle-East and East-Africa indexes are strong.

       Christmas demand from U.S. buyers arrived early, turning Alibaba.com’s mid-year “618” sale into a de-facto “Christmas stocking-up fair.”

       Tariff uncertainty is pushing firms into cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses—segments that are outperforming traditional trade. Wan Yitong VP Wang Sijie says Q4 inventory from overseas buyers is normal; tariffs have barely hit volumes or margins because most extra costs have been passed to U.S. consumers via price adjustments.

       Beyond the U.S., e-commerce players are pivoting to Europe this year, spurring growth in that ecosystem. “European e-commerce is accelerating; most platforms are shifting focus from the U.S. because of geopolitics,” said Jiang Qing, whose forwarder used to be North-America-only but has now added Europe and South-East Asia and is seeing incremental volumes. He worries, however, that the EU may scrap the €150 duty-free threshold in Q1 2026, “making Europe tougher too.”

  Mixed fortunes by sector  

       Under the broad “coolness”, performance varies sharply by region and product, forcing SMEs to diversify markets and hunt for new niches.

       Fueled by Pop Mart and peers, the global designer-toy market is booming—US$8.7 bn to US$44.8 bn from 2015-2024, a 23 % CAGR. Liu Mingyang told Yicai that new toy SKUs already account for nearly 20 % of his firm’s business after grabbing several IP licences and building a dedicated plant.

       Ding Yandong, who exports smart sun-shading systems, says “we’ve had containers loading every week” and by end-October had matched last year’s full-year value, thanks to a new South-American key account. Continuous investment in new kit lets his micro-enterprise stay ahead of competitors, most of whom are not U.S.-focused.

       Wuxi Shuangzhen, maker of pet beds, is “fighting daily to meet delivery dates” after front-loading Christmas orders. Sales to October already exceed last year; the firm protected revenue by switching to supermarket chains when tariffs hit branded customers.

       Paper-box exporter Li Junhua says turnover is stable but margins are thinner: “Even repeat customers haggle.” Over-capacity has spread “involution” beyond traditional labour-intensive goods.

       Luo Sheng, selling garments and accessories to Africa, says October orders were mediocre but November-December—his customers’ real peak—look better.

  Data spotlight  

       Electro-mechanical products now exceed 60 % of China’s exports; ICs and vehicles still post double-digit growth. In Jan-Oct, electro-mechanical exports rose 8.7 %: ICs +24.7 %, vehicles +14.3 %, PCs –0.7 %. Labour-intensive exports fell 3 % (15.3 % share): garments –3 %, textiles +1.8 %, plastics –0.1 %, farm products +2 %. October alone: chip exports +26.9 % YoY, vehicles +34 % YoY.

       Feng Lin concludes that industrial upgrading is creating new export engines, offsetting declines in luggage, toys and apparel.

Source: Yicai