In the next 5 to 10 years, intensified great - power competition and geo - political rivalry will heighten global uncertainty. Yet the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and China's rapid development will inject valuable certainty into the world.

       In recent years, uncertainties in global free trade have grown, manifesting in four ways:

       Rising global trade policy uncertainty. Since the WTO's dispute settlement mechanism has been in trouble, global trade restrictions have surged. In 2024, new global trade restrictions were five times the 2010 - 2019 average. But from 2021 to 2024, new WTO dispute applications fell by 69% compared to when the Appellate Body functioned normally.

       Geo - political competition fragmenting global trade patterns. IMF data shows intra - bloc trade growth slowed from 2.2% to 1.7% pre - Ukraine war, and inter - bloc trade growth dropped from 3% to - 1.9%.

       Shortening global industrial and supply chains. The share of global intermediate goods trade in total trade fell from 58.8% in 2013 to 48.5% in 2023. Asia's share in US parts trade declined from 43% in 2022 to 38% in 2023.

       Sluggish global trade growth. From 2020 to 2024, global trade grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%, the slowest five - year period since the 1990s.

Against this backdrop, the RCEP injects key certainty into global free trade:

       Boosting regional free trade: Despite two years of global goods trade decline, RCEP - region trade rose about 2.4% in 2024 from pre - RCEP levels in 2021. By 2030, RCEP could add USD 500 billion to trade.

       Stabilizing regional industrial and supply chains: After RCEP took effect, the share of intermediate goods trade in the region's total trade climbed from 64.5% in 2021 to around 65% in 2022, and to about 66% in 2023, showing strong resilience amid global trade declines.

       Driving regional economic growth: Amid weak global growth, Asia, led by RCEP, is a major global growth engine. The IMF projects that from 2023 to 2029, the RCEP region's GDP will grow by USD 10.9 trillion, contributing over 40% to global growth.

       The positive impact of jointly building the world's largest high - level free trade zone is significant. In 2024, China and ASEAN may sign the China - ASEAN FTA 3.0, enhancing the FTA's regulatory framework. Negotiations for a China - Japan - Korea FTA may also break through, supporting a "RCEP+" - level agreement. If China Hong Kong, Chile, and Sri Lanka join RCEP in 2025, it will become a cross - regional organization, expanding Asian economic integration and playing a key role in countering US challenges to global free trade and leading fair global economic rules.

       As the RCEP's largest economy, China's orderly expansion of autonomous and unilateral openness provides key momentum for global free trade. Its unilateral opening - up has expanded global and regional free trade space. By 2030, China's service - oriented consumption share is expected to rise from 46.11% in 2024 to 50%, marking its entry into a service - based society and bringing profound economic changes and global impact.

       China's institutional opening - up, focusing on services, has boosted global free trade. In 2024, China's service trade exceeded USD 1 trillion for the first time, and is expected to reach USD 1.5 trillion by 2030, a major boon for global free trade.

       China has stabilized global industrial and supply chains. Its share in global intermediate goods trade rose from 8.8% in 2013 to 12% in 2023, with manufacturing intermediate goods trade reaching around 20% of the global total. China's high - level opening - up is a key factor in stabilizing these chains.

       China has been a vital driver of global growth. In 2024, it contributed about 30% to global growth with a 5% economic expansion, making it a key global stabilizer. Over the next 5 to 10 years, as China's economic structural transformation progresses, it's expected to maintain a 30% contribution to global growth, remaining the world's primary growth engine.