Suez is busy again, but the rate has not caught up
Three years of detours are unwinding. By the week ending 1 November, 53 container ships passed through the canal, about 130 percent above the same week of 2025. Industry trackers now put roughly 60 percent of Asia to Europe capacity back on the Suez routing, and every major alliance has vessels using it again. Freight rates have not moved nearly as fast. That gap is where the work is this month.
📊 The numbers behind the return
Canal transits, week to 1 Nov: 53 container ships | up about 130 percent year on year
Three week average: 57 transits a week | five straight weeks above 50
Asia to Europe capacity back on Suez: about 60 percent | per Drewry tracking on 3 Nov
Round voyage to North Europe: 97 days via Suez vs 124 days via the Cape | 27 days and 7,833 nautical miles saved
The time saving is the solid number. A September comparison put a Suez round voyage at 21,878 nautical miles and 97 days, against 29,711 miles and 124 days around the Cape. The same exercise put the operating cost of one round voyage at about 18 million dollars versus 17 million, a drop near 6 percent. Six percent is not a rate collapse. It also leaves out war risk premiums and any canal authority rebate, one adding cost and the other taking it away.
The schedule changes before the invoice does
Shorter loops mean the same ships can run more sailings in a year. Every ETD, ETA, cut off time and free time allowance has to be redrawn. Early weeks of a routing switch tend to bring skipped calls, merged sailings and rolled boxes. A schedule built in September is not safe to copy into December. Northern European port congestion and recent labour action at European terminals are eating into the capacity that just came back, which is one reason the spot rate stays sticky.
| Item | What the data says | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Canal transits | 53 ships in one week, up about 130 percent | Confirm the actual routing |
| Capacity | About 60 percent of Asia to Europe sailings back on Suez | Reprice by voyage |
| Voyage length | 97 days vs 124 days, 27 days saved | Redraw ETD and ETA |
| Cost per round voyage | About 18m to 17m dollars, near 6 percent lower | Do not assume a deep cut |
| Freight rate | SCFI Europe down about 3 percent last week | Lock space, keep price flexible |
Rate signals are mixed. One index for European sailings slipped about 3 percent last week, while an announced mid month increase has been hanging in the air with little conviction behind it. A general rate increase at the start of November failed to hold on the transpacific side, and several lines have cancelled planned hikes. Demand is not surging to absorb the released capacity. The honest read is that time is now more predictable than price.
One clause to watch
Every operator has kept the option to go back around the Cape, and the decision rests on security conditions in the Red Sea. A war risk surcharge on Black Sea cargo took effect on 9 November, so other cost lines are moving up while the canal routing pulls voyage time down. Ask for the actual route in writing, check which surcharges are still inside the quote, and leave one sailing of slack on any delivery date that matters.
Practical move: stop quoting from the sailing assumptions used last month. Rebuild the lane by lane cost with the new transit time, then check whether buyers in that destination have already changed their ordering rhythm. BigTradeData lets you screen import records by HS code and destination, so you can see which markets are pulling volumes forward and which are waiting for cheaper freight. -- Sources: Drewry Red Sea Diversion Tracker 3 November 2026, industry reporting 9 November 2026, SCFI weekly readings.
Where to spend this week
💡 Notes for exporters
Rewrite the sailing table:Check ETD, ETA, cut off and free time on every November and December booking. A 27 day shorter loop moves all four.
Check the buyer side with data:BigTradeData covers customs records across more than 200 markets, so you can test whether a destination is actually lifting volumes before you commit space.
Lock space, not price:In a softening market the gap between contract and spot shifts daily. Keep the booking and shorten the validity of the quote.
Keep a second routing:Security conditions can flip the decision back to the Cape. Put the alternative route and its buffer into the delivery promise now.
Three years of detours did not unwind in one week, and the rate did not follow the ships back. The useful move is boring: confirm the route, redraw the dates, then look at what buyers are actually doing. BigTradeData brings together customs records from more than 200 markets with HS code, company and shipment size filters, which beats guessing from a freight headline. Check the schedule, check the data, then send the quote.