2025 U.S. Imports of HS 2709001000 (Crude Petroleum Oils) - Annual Analysis
This report is built on U.S. Customs import records for HTS 2709001000 (crude petroleum oils), covering the full year 2025 (Jan-Dec). It analyses import value, volume (barrels), unit price (USD/barrel), month-over-month trend, partner-country concentration, and top ports of entry. Crude oil is the single largest U.S. import commodity by value, and its sourcing geography is unusually concentrated.
Key Findings: extreme single-source concentration; H1-led, softening H2
In 2025, U.S. imports under HTS 2709001000 reached $87.12 billion CIF, totalling about 1,383.6 million barrels at an average $62.97/barrel. The defining feature is extreme origin concentration: Canada (CA) (77.5%) alone supplies more than three-quarters of import value; together with Mexico (MX) (6.8%) and Colombia (CO) (4.3%), the top-3 reach 88.7%. On the time axis the year was front-loaded: H1 ($44.80B) exceeded H2 ($42.32B) by 5.5%, with the November trough ($0.00B) the lowest month and the per-barrel price sliding from $67.60 (Jan) to $57.85 (Dec).
1. Import Data Overview (Jan-Dec 2025)
Monthly CIF value, volume (barrels), FOB value, transaction count, average unit price (USD/barrel) and month-over-month (MoM) change.
1.1 Monthly Data
| Month | CIF Value (USD) | Volume (bbl) | FOB (USD) | Txns | Unit $/bbl | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $nan | - |
| 01 | 8,761,994,028 | 129,618,102 | 8,302,100,233 | 71 | $67.60 | +inf% |
| 02 | 7,511,450,559 | 110,425,361 | 7,126,027,187 | 58 | $68.02 | -14.3% |
| 03 | 7,326,415,707 | 110,982,833 | 6,945,322,692 | 96 | $66.01 | -2.5% |
| 04 | 6,935,537,817 | 106,437,571 | 6,563,018,623 | 73 | $65.16 | -5.3% |
| 05 | 7,390,156,677 | 121,226,834 | 6,997,656,795 | 78 | $60.96 | +6.6% |
| 06 | 6,878,759,781 | 111,842,195 | 6,523,686,843 | 62 | $61.50 | -6.9% |
| 07 | 7,994,191,051 | 126,138,209 | 7,560,056,226 | 69 | $63.38 | +16.2% |
| 08 | 7,128,457,539 | 112,071,670 | 6,747,084,031 | 65 | $63.61 | -10.8% |
| 09 | 7,250,701,458 | 116,666,463 | 6,825,167,987 | 59 | $62.15 | +1.7% |
| 10 | 6,655,005,906 | 110,744,534 | 6,257,742,354 | 71 | $60.09 | -8.2% |
| 11 | 5,799,885,217 | 98,014,958 | 5,456,670,645 | 61 | $59.17 | -12.8% |
| 12 | 7,489,661,268 | 129,467,769 | 7,028,161,246 | 62 | $57.85 | +29.1% |
| YR | 87,122,217,008 | 1,383,636,499 | 82,332,694,862 | 825 | $62.97 | - |
1.2 Quarterly Summary
| Quarter | CIF Value | Volume (bbl) | FOB | Txns | Avg $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $23.60B | 351,026,296 | $22.37B | 225 | $67.23 |
| Q2 | $21.20B | 339,506,600 | $20.08B | 213 | $62.46 |
| Q3 | $22.37B | 354,876,342 | $21.13B | 193 | $63.05 |
| Q4 | $19.94B | 338,227,261 | $18.74B | 194 | $58.97 |
CIF value moved Q1 $23.60B to Q4 $19.94B, a Q1-Q4 change of -15.5%. The clearest signal is a softening second half: monthly value peaked in January ($8.76B) and bottomed in November ($0.00B).
1.3 Monthly CIF Import Value, 2025
2. Top Partner Countries and Entry Ports, 2025
Top 3 Partner Countries
Canada (CA) ($67.53B, 77.5%)
Mexico (MX) ($5.95B, 6.8%)
Colombia (CO) ($3.78B, 4.3%)
Top 3 Entry Ports
CHICAGO, IL ($33.10B, 38.0%)
DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX ($6.68B, 7.7%)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN ($6.45B, 7.4%)
Top 6 Partner Countries by Value
| Rank | Country/Region | CIF (USD) | Volume (bbl) | $/bbl | Share | Txns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canada (CA) | $67.53B | 1,096,433,391 | $61.59 | 77.52% | 248 |
| 2 | Mexico (MX) | $5.95B | 93,322,785 | $63.70 | 6.82% | 88 |
| 3 | Colombia (CO) | $3.78B | 54,510,897 | $69.37 | 4.34% | 129 |
| 4 | Ecuador (EC) | $3.04B | 40,777,701 | $74.67 | 3.50% | 44 |
| 5 | Venezuela (VE) | $2.81B | 42,961,963 | $65.38 | 3.22% | 72 |
| 6 | Brazil (BR) | $1.31B | 18,451,207 | $70.75 | 1.50% | 69 |
Top 6 Entry Ports by Value
| Rank | Port | CIF (USD) | Volume (bbl) | $/bbl | Share | Txns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHICAGO, IL | $33.10B | 541,689,176 | $61.10 | 37.99% | 19 |
| 2 | DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX | $6.68B | 106,392,642 | $62.80 | 7.67% | 17 |
| 3 | MINNEAPOLIS, MN | $6.45B | 111,254,414 | $58.01 | 7.41% | 15 |
| 4 | HOUSTON-GALVESTON, TX | $6.44B | 94,384,326 | $68.19 | 7.39% | 171 |
| 5 | PORT ARTHUR, TX | $5.53B | 83,751,074 | $66.06 | 6.35% | 97 |
| 6 | GREAT FALLS, MT | $5.26B | 90,307,981 | $58.23 | 6.04% | 20 |
Top 10 Partner Countries by CIF Value
Top 10 Entry Ports by CIF Value
3. In-depth Data Interpretation
Structural Features
Extreme single-source concentration - Canada alone = 77.5%
One origin, Canada (CA), supplies 77.5% of full-year CIF value ($67.53B); the top-3 (Canada (CA), Mexico (MX), Colombia (CO)) reach 88.7% and top-5 95.4%. This is a textbook example of supply-chain single-point dependence. (inference: any disruption to Canadian crude flows - pipeline, tariff, or policy - would directly threaten U.S. refinery feedstock security).
Front-loaded year - H1 stronger than H2
H1 value ($44.80B) exceeded H2 ($42.32B) by 5.5%; Q4 ($19.94B) was -15.5% versus Q1 ($23.60B). The per-barrel price fell from $67.60 (Jan) to $57.85 (Dec), a -14.4% decline. Both volume and price softened into year-end - consistent with weaker downstream demand and lower global crude prices in H2 2025.
Land-border / pipeline corridors dominate entry
The largest "port" of entry is CHICAGO, IL (38.0%), a Midwestern pipeline hub, followed by DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX (7.7%) and MINNEAPOLIS, MN (7.4%); top-5 ports concentrate 66.8%. This mirrors the partner concentration: Canadian crude arrives overwhelmingly via inland pipeline rather than seaborne terminals.
Key Partner and Channel Analysis
Canada (CA): dominant source at 77.5%, lowest unit price ($61.59/bbl)
Imports $67.53B, 1,096.4M barrels, $61.59/barrel - the lowest among major suppliers, consistent with the well-known discount on Canadian heavy crude (WCS) versus light grades. FOB $63.45B; CIF-FOB spread (freight/insurance) ≈ $4.08B. 248 transactions - large, steady flows.
Mexico (MX) and Colombia (CO): secondary but higher-priced sources
Mexico (MX) $5.95B (6.8%, $63.70/bbl) and Colombia (CO) $3.78B (4.3%, $69.37/bbl) sit well above Canada on unit price, reflecting lighter / seaborne grades. Together 11.2% of value - useful but thin diversification versus the Canadian anchor.
November trough + price slide: demand and price both softened
November was the weakest month ($0.00B, 0.0M bbl, $nan/bbl) while January was the strongest ($8.76B). The unit price ranged from $68.02/bbl (02) to $57.85/bbl (12). (inference: the volume-price co-movement points to genuine demand softening rather than mix effects).
Partner Stability (from monthly pivot)
Using the monthly partner-level pivot, Canada's monthly CIF is far more stable than that of secondary suppliers - it is the backbone of U.S. crude supply.
| Partner | Min $B | Max $B | Avg $B | Spread % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada (CA) | 4.45 | 6.45 | 5.63 | 36% |
| Mexico (MX) | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 70% |
| Colombia (CO) | 0.11 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 116% |
4. 2025 Trend Assessment
Favorable Factors
Stable Canadian backbone: Canada monthly CIF spread only ~36%, providing predictable feedstock.
Low, declining unit price: average $62.97/bbl and falling into year-end - lower feedstock cost for U.S. refiners.
Dense logistics: 825 transactions across land and seaborne corridors.
Pipeline reliability: Chicago/Dallas/Minneapolis hubs move the bulk with low marginal cost.
Unfavorable Factors
Extreme origin risk: Canada 77.5% + Mexico 6.8% = 84.3%; a single-source shock hits the whole.
Softening H2: H2 5.5% below H1; November trough signals weakening demand.
Price volatility: unit price swung from $68.02 to $57.85/bbl within the year.
Seaborne exposure: secondary suppliers (Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil) carry freight and geopolitical risk.
Trend Outlook
At 77.5% share, short-term replacement is structurally impossible; continuity is the base case.
If global crude stays weak, 2026 value could fall further despite stable volumes.
Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil and T&T together 9.0% - room to grow as hedges.
Any change to cross-border pipeline capacity or tariffs is the dominant swing factor.
5. Foreign Trade Recommendations
Origin Diversification
Lock in Canadian capacity: 77.5% share - secure long-term pipeline and take-or-pay agreements.
Grow seaborne hedges: Ecuador / Venezuela / Brazil / T&T currently 9.0%; lift by 2-3 pts to reduce single-point risk.
Develop Gulf Coast alternatives: Houston-Galveston, Port Arthur, Mobile, New Orleans together 20.7% - seaborne redundancy for refineries.
Pricing & Procurement
Capture the discount: Canada's $61.59/bbl is the lowest; maximise take while maintaining quality balance.
Hedge price risk: unit price swung $68.02-$57.85/bbl; use forward/futures to stabilise landed cost.
Index procurement to WTI/WCS spreads rather than flat quotes.
Channel Resilience
Bind inland pipeline corridors: Chicago (38.0%) + Dallas (7.7%) + Minneapolis (7.4%) = 53.1%; maintain priority scheduling.
Build seaborne overflow: when pipelines are constrained, divert to Houston / Port Arthur / Mobile.
Maintain Gulf Coast strategic inventory to absorb cross-border disruptions.
Risk Management
Single-source hedge: with Canada at 77.5%, model a total Canadian-flow disruption scenario and pre-stage alternatives.
Tariff / policy watch: cross-border crude tariff or pipeline-policy changes are the dominant risk.
Demand monitoring: the H2 softening and November trough require close tracking of refinery run rates.
Data Notes
HS classification: HTS 2709001000 is the U.S. 10-digit statistical breakout of HS 2709.00 (crude petroleum oils). All figures refer to this 10-digit code; the parent 6-digit HS 2709.00 covers crude petroleum oils broadly.
Data source: U.S. Customs Import Records (CIF/FOB value, volume, transaction counts).
Period: Jan-Dec 2025 (full year, 12 months).
Units: CIF/FOB in US dollars; the primary quantity is barrels (bbl) of crude; unit price is CIF divided by barrels (USD/bbl).
Net weight (metric tons) excluded: the source dataset's "metric ton" column is incompletely reported - notably zero for Canada, the largest supplier - and is internally inconsistent with the barrel figures. It is therefore excluded from headline metrics; all analyses use CIF value and primary quantity (barrels).
MoM: (current month value - prior month value) / prior month value.
Market share: segment value divided by total annual value.
Transactions: count of distinct customs declaration records in the dataset (approximate, not an official customs field).
Regional grouping: "Taiwan, China" and "Hong Kong, China" follow U.S. trade regional classification where applicable.
Inferential statements: characterisations such as "Canadian heavy-crude discount", "pipeline corridor", "demand softening", and "single-source risk" are industry inferences drawn from unit-price structure and source mix, not from the HS code itself. Trend judgements are based on historical data and market structure, not deterministic forecasts.
Conclusion
U.S. imports of HTS 2709001000 in 2025 present a clear "single-anchor, front-loaded" pattern: full-year CIF value reached $87.12B (1,383.6M barrels, avg $62.97/bbl), but H1 ($44.80B) ran 5.5% ahead of H2 ($42.32B) as both volume and the per-barrel price softened into year-end. On the source side, Canada (CA) alone accounts for 77.5%; the top-3 partner countries reach 88.7% and the top-3 ports (Chicago + Dallas-Fort Worth + Minneapolis) 53.1%. The dual concentration - sources on Canada and channels on inland pipelines - is the principal strategic risk. Recommended actions: lock in Canadian pipeline capacity while growing seaborne hedges (Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil, Trinidad & Tobago), hedge the wide crude-price swings with forwards, and maintain Gulf Coast strategic inventory so that even a cross-border disruption can be absorbed without interrupting U.S. refinery operations.
>