Following Iran's weekend attacks on two major aluminum producers in the Middle East, international aluminum prices surged sharply at the market open on Monday, as a series of attacks threaten to exacerbate supply disruptions in a region that accounts for a significant share of global aluminum output.

      Market data showed that aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped nearly 6% in early trading, reaching $3,492 per ton, before retreating slightly to around $3,426.

       The impact was also reflected in Asia-Pacific markets, where shares of several aluminum companies strengthened. In China's A-share market, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) rose over 3%, Nanshan Aluminum gained 4%, and Xinjiang Joinworld saw its shares hit the daily trading limit.

       Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the largest aluminum producer in the Middle East, announced on March 28 that its Al Taweelah production site in the Khalifa Industrial Zone in Abu Dhabi was struck by Iranian missiles and drones earlier that day, sustaining severe damage. The affected facilities include a smelter that produced 1.6 million tons of cast aluminum in 2025, as well as a refinery that supplies the smelter with alumina, a key raw material for the metal.

According to sources, the UAE is the world's fifth-largest aluminum producer. EGA's official website states that one out of every 25 tons of aluminum produced globally comes from EGA—equivalent to approximately 4% of global capacity.

       Apart from EGA, Alba (Aluminum Bahrain), which operates the world's largest single-site aluminum smelter, also reported on March 29 that its facilities were attacked by Iran on March 28. "Alba is currently assessing the extent of damage to its facilities and remains focused on maintaining operational resilience and ensuring the safety of its employees," the company said.

       Previously, on March 15, Alba had announced that due to ongoing supply and transportation disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, it had initiated a phased shutdown of three production lines, representing 19% of its total capacity, to "maintain business continuity." The company has an annual aluminum production capacity of 1.6 million tons.

       Although aluminum is one of the most abundant metals on Earth, it is critical to the functioning of the global economy. It is an essential material for electronics, transportation, construction, solar panels, packaging, and other industries.

       Analysts note that the Middle East conflict had already driven aluminum prices significantly higher, as smelters in the region faced difficulties shipping out metal or bringing in raw materials. The latest attacks undoubtedly risk worsening the situation—even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply disruptions could persist for an extended period.

       Earlier this month, aluminum prices surged to four-year highs, and despite some retreat, prices remain more than 4% above levels seen on February 27.

       Ephrem Ravi, an analyst at Citigroup, wrote in a report that even after the immediate risk of attacks subsides, the consequences of any shutdowns could be prolonged, as aluminum smelters require three to six months to fully resume production.

       A report from commodity brokerage StoneX noted that excluding Iran, the Gulf region as a whole accounted for about 8% of global aluminum smelting output in 2025.

       CITIC Securities noted in a recent research report that the resurgence of the Iran-Israel conflict has significantly heightened risks to aluminum production capacity, shipping routes, and energy supply in the Middle East. The potential for further disruptions to aluminum production in the region, or even a secondary energy crisis overseas, should not be underestimated. Looking back at the 2021–2022 energy crisis, aluminum prices and sector valuations rose by up to 60% and 100%, respectively. Looking ahead, heightened concerns over supply disruptions in the aluminum chain could lead to price increases beyond previous expectations. Combined with strong long-term supply-demand fundamentals for aluminum, the outlook for the aluminum sector remains bullish, with expectations for both price appreciation and valuation growth.