China’s auto-export landscape redrawn: Mexico overtakes Russia as top destination

Fresh data from CPCA Secretary-General Cui Dongshu show that in 2025 China shipped 625,200 vehicles to Mexico, up 180,500 units year-on-year, making Mexico the No. 1 export market for the first time. Russia, long the largest buyer, slipped to 582,700 units.

The shift signals a profound re-balancing of China’s overseas sales—from heavy reliance on a single market to a diversified footprint. Yet Mexico’s new tariff schedule could redraw the map again in 2026.

   Export-market mosaic re-ordered   

Full-year 2025 figures reveal Mexico (625k) leap-frogging Russia (583k). The UAE ranks third at 572k, followed by the U.K., Brazil and Saudi Arabia.

In volume terms the UAE was the fastest-growing market (+241,700), with Mexico second (+180,500). But on 10 December 2025 Mexico’s Congress approved a bill imposing tariffs of up to 50 % on Chinese cars from January 2026. December data already hint at a coming shake-up: the UAE soared to monthly No. 1 with 106,400 units (+67,800), while the U.K. took third place at 54,800 (+40,800).

Cui notes that Chinese OEMs’ risk-aversion towards Russia—though its domestic sales fell only modestly—drove the big 2025 export drop there. The change shows firms actively spreading exposure amid rising trade-policy uncertainty.

   NEVs lead the surge   

New-energy vehicles starred in 2025: exports reached 3.43 million units, up 70 %, far outpacing 2024’s 16 % pace. Plug-in hybrids led the charge, underscoring China’s global competitiveness in electrification.

Power-train mix is shifting fast:

• BEVs 28 % (+2 pp)

• PHEVs 13 % (+8 pp)

• HEVs 6 % (+2 pp)

• ICE 43 % (-11 pp)

Top five NEV markets in 2025: Belgium, U.K., Mexico, Brazil, Philippines. Mexico added 140,600 units, the UAE 115,200 and the U.K. 111,900.

Growth meets global headwinds
Average export price slipped again—to USD 16,000 in 2025 versus USD 19,000 in 2023 and USD 18,000 in 2024—mainly because Tesla’s share of China’s exports shrank, Cui explains.

Looking ahead, China’s export boom faces policy, economic and geopolitical cross-currents. December shipments hit 990,000 units (+73 % YoY, +23 % MoM), but the global EV market is cooling: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence puts 2025 world EV sales at 20.7 million (+20 %) with momentum slowing to a two-year low and 2026 growth forecast at only 15.7 %. Purchase intentions for pure EVs are falling in all major markets.

Whether China’s torrid export pace is sustainable will hinge on its ability to keep delivering competitive products and on the trajectory of global auto demand overall.