China’s transformer exports hit an all-time high in 2025. Against a backdrop of global grid-equipment shortages and soaring prices, the value of China’s supply chain has been thrown into sharp relief. A supply-demand mismatch driven by data-center construction and wider electrification is reshaping the global power-equipment market and creating sustained order-growth opportunities for Chinese manufacturers.
       According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s transformer exports in 2025 reached a record RMB 646 billion, up nearly 36 percent year-on-year. The average export price per unit rose to RMB 205,000, about one-third higher than the previous year. This surge coincided with severe shortages of transformers and other critical grid infrastructure worldwide.
       Earlier, State Grid announced that investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will reach RMB 4 trillion, a record 40 percent increase on the 14th Five-Year Plan.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that the United States, the world’s largest transformer buyer, is facing a supply shortfall of about 30 percent, with the shortfall likely to persist into the 2030s. BloombergNEF data show that global grid investment exceeded USD 480 billion in 2024 for the first time, with strong growth expected to continue for several years.

   Data centers: the core driver of demand   

       Driving order growth for Chinese manufacturers is not only overseas modernization of aging grids but also the global data-center boom. Guotai Junan Securities analysts Xu Qiang and Fang Qing previously noted that the global data-center market will grow from USD 242.7 billion in 2024 to USD 584.8 billion in 2032.
       The analysts stress that data-center power demand is rising exponentially, with half of that demand met by renewable generation. This means that both grid-connection substations and renewable-generation sites are seeing simultaneous surges in demand for transformers and switchgear. Transformers, which convert high-voltage electricity to low-voltage electricity, are indispensable grid infrastructure.

   Supply gap unlikely to close soon   

       Guotai Junan Securities points out that although new investment plans have been announced worldwide, capacity expansion takes time and order backlogs are severe. IEA data suggest delivery lead times will remain high in 2025.
       The brokerage forecasts that in 2025 U.S. power-transformer demand will exceed supply by 30 percent, with a 10 percent shortfall in distribution transformers. This mismatch has driven prices sharply higher. Since 2020, the global power-transformer price index has risen 1.5-fold, with some complex models reaching 2.6 times pre-pandemic levels.
       The brokerage believes that when demand spikes in the short term while transformer capacity expansion lags, the sector becomes a supply-chain bottleneck. Against a global shortage, Chinese companies are well positioned to benefit from this infrastructure restocking cycle.

   China’s supply-chain advantage continues to strengthen   

       Guotai Junan Securities data show that China accounts for one-quarter of global transformer exports. Since 2018, transformer trade values in European and U.S. markets have doubled, highlighting their heavy reliance on imports. Against a backdrop of extreme shortages of grid equipment in Europe and the U.S., the value of China’s supply chain has become even more prominent.
       The domestic market also provides strong support. On January 15, State Grid announced that fixed-asset investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach RMB 4 trillion, a 40 percent increase on the 14th Five-Year Plan, for new-type power-system construction. On January 17, the National Energy Administration announced that in 2025 China’s total electricity consumption will historically exceed 10 trillion kWh, reaching 10.4 trillion kWh, up 5 percent year-on-year.
       China’s investment in a renewable-energy-dominated super-grid is creating sustained domestic demand growth for transformer manufacturers.