Over the past few days, the re-introduction of an export-licence regime for steel has set the industry abuzz. The measure itself is not new: licences for steel imports and exports date back to 1950, making them 75 years old. During that time they have been switched on and off repeatedly, usually in response to shifting political or trade pressures.

  Why revive them now?  
       

       Many see the move as a way to choke off “fake-export” schemes in which traders buy tax-paid invoices to claim rebates. That is probably one aim, but the deeper driver is the wave of anti-dumping cases lodged against Chinese steel during the past two years. History shows that whenever trade friction spikes, licences reappear.

       The sector also needs an “anti-involution” shock. Cut-throat competition has spilled from the domestic market into Southeast Asia, Europe and the Americas. Too much of what is shipped is low-value commodity grade, sold cheaply and tarnishing China’s image abroad.

       By bringing licences back in 2025, Beijing is signalling that it wants to manage both the volume and the mix of exports, not just police fake invoices. The paperwork will, of course, make exporting slower and more complicated.

  Is this bearish for steel prices?  

       Yes—and no. National Bureau of Statistics data show crude-steel output in November 2025 at 69.87 Mt, down 10.9 % YoY. Output for January-November was 891.67 Mt, 4 % lower than a year earlier. Production is clearly sliding, and the market is searching for a new equilibrium.

       The country must curb “involution” while also expanding domestic demand. What level of output, export volume and price delivers a virtuous circle is still unclear.

       Still, the timing is convenient. With export prices below domestic levels and mills running at razor-thin or negative margins, curbing overseas sales meets less resistance. Fewer exports should also damp iron-ore prices—another cost lever the industry cares about.

       Ultimately, if Beijing couples licences with stricter invoicing rules, it can squeeze the grey space in which fake exports thrive and push the sector toward a healthier, more transparent future.