Polycarbonate (PC) is the work-horse of engineering plastics. Shatter-proof phone cases, microwave-safe food boxes, light-transmitting yet storm-resistant roofing sheets, car sunroofs that shrug off desert heat—all rely on this versatile “hidden champion.”

       China’s PC industry has raced ahead. By end-2024 domestic name-plate capacity reached 3.81 million t/y with output of 2.3 million t/y, five-year CAGRs of 20 % and 31 % respectively. The global market is forecast to rise from US$17.99 billion in 2025 to US$24.92 billion in 2032, a 4.77 % CAGR.

       Customs data show that in January-June 2025 China exported 281,000 t of primary polycarbonate (HS 39074000) worth US$636 million, up US$96.6 million (+17.9 %) year-on-year. Average export price was US$2.26 kg⁻¹, 1.2 % lower than a year earlier.

       The modest price erosion reflects: (i) a 10 % on-year capacity hike that left the market long; (ii) falling feedstock bisphenol-A costs; and (iii) stagnant auto and electronics demand in Europe and the U.S. where high tariffs curb premium shipments. Exporters therefore shifted volume to price-sensitive Southeast Asia, lifting the share of lower-grade grades and dragging the average down.

       Vietnam was the largest destination (US$120 million), followed by Taiwan, China (US$61.7 million) and Korea (US$48.0 million). Singapore stood out with 68 % growth, helped by: (a) booming high-end electronics output; (b) lower compliance costs under the upgraded China-Singapore FTA that took effect December 2024; and (c) Singapore’s hub status and the May-2025 PASFTA, which let Chinese PC re-export to Southeast Asia and Latin America duty-free.

       Overall, China shipped to 97 countries/regions, five more than in H1-2024. Nearly 70 % of markets posted positive growth; among the top-20, eleven grew >10 % and three >60 %. Asia still absorbed 78.7 % of volume (US$501 million, +17 %). Europe rose 45 % to US$64 million, Latin America 7 % to US$55 million, North America 4 % to US$7 million and Oceania 63 % to US$0.8 million, while Africa slipped 8 % to US$8.6 million.

       Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu supplied 90 % of exports; Fujian, Liaoning, Hunan, Henan and Beijing followed with US$8.8 million, US$6.7 million, US$6.6 million, US$5.4 million and US$5.2 million respectively.

       With Vietnam, Korea, India and Thailand leading demand—and Western Europe, Central/Eastern Europe and Africa expanding—future upside is tangible. Yet China, already producing roughly half of the world’s PC, faces “low-end over-capacity, rising compliance costs and substitute materials.” To capture the next growth wave, Chinese producers must move up the curve—breaking high-end technical barriers, launching specialty grades and integrating the value chain—while keeping a close eye on evolving global trade flows.