China's Economic Outlook Amid Global Recovery Challenges: Insights from Auto Industry and Foreign Trade

As global economic recovery faces headwinds, the spotlight turns to China's economic prospects. Recent data from two key sectors offers critical insights.

I. Automobile Production and Sales: A Strategic Pillar of High-Quality Development

Record-Breaking Performance

From January to April 2024, China’s automobile production and sales both exceeded 10 million units for the first time in history, marking year-on-year growth of 12.9% and 10.8%, respectively. Notably, new energy vehicle (NEV) exports surged to 642,000 units, up 52.6% year-on-year (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, May 12).

BYD, a leading NEV manufacturer, exported nearly 80,000 vehicles in April alone, a 90%+ increase, underscoring Chinese automakers’ expanding global influence.

Policy-Driven Market Expansion

The 2024 vehicle trade-in subsidy program has received over 10 million applications since its launch, with 3.225 million applications filed by May 11, 2025. Over 53% of trade-ins involve NEVs, demonstrating the policy’s dual role in boosting consumption and accelerating green transition.

The Action Plan to Boost Consumption (March 2024) promotes upgrades in automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings, driving a 19% increase in equipment investment and a 4.6% rise in retail sales in Q1 2025.

II. Foreign Trade Resilience: Defying Global Headwinds

Steady Growth Amid Uncertainty

China’s total goods trade in the first four months of 2024 grew by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating to 5.6% in April. Exports rose 9.3% in April, defying U.S. tariff pressures (General Administration of Customs, May 9).

Media outlets like Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao and Germany’s DPA termed the results “better than expected,” while Reuters highlighted China’s “nearly double-digit export growth” as evidence of effective policy measures.

Structural Shifts and Innovation-Driven Exports

High-tech product exports grew 7.4% in the first four months, contributing 1.3 percentage points to total export growth.

In Q1 2025, output from high-tech manufacturing, including servers and 3D printing equipment, surged by 66.3% and 44.9%, respectively.

III. Green Transformation: Leading the Global Low-Carbon Transition

NEV Dominance and Green Innovation

NEV production and sales surpassed 4 million units in the first four months, with growth exceeding 45%. Companies like CATL (releasing ultra-durable sodium-ion batteries) and Huawei (pioneering liquid-cooled mega-chargers) exemplify China’s tech-driven green shift.

Global Impact and Collaboration

China’s NEVs are reshaping markets in Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and the UAE. Brazilian EV Association President Ricardo Bastos noted: “Chinese NEVs are becoming a new choice for Brazilian consumers.”

China now generates one-third of its electricity from renewables, with wind and solar products exported to over 200 countries, reducing global green energy costs by 60–80% over the past decade.

Conclusion: Confidence Through Innovation and Governance

China’s economic resilience stems from counter-cyclical policy adjustments, deep integration of sci-tech and industrial innovation, and unwavering green transition. As global observers remark: “In China, we see the future and confidence.”