China and the ASEAN nations are geographically intertwined and culturally connected. In recent years, economic and trade interactions between China and ASEAN have grown increasingly closer. Since 2013, the average annual growth rate of trade between China and ASEAN has been 7.5%. In 2023, bilateral trade volume reached USD 911.7 billion, with China remaining ASEAN's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, and ASEAN maintaining its position as China's top trading partner for four years running. China and ASEAN continue to expand their trade "pie."

  Bilateral trade has seen rapid growth   

In recent years, the scale of trade between China and ASEAN countries has continuously expanded, with trade cooperation deepening further.

The latest data from China's General Administration of Customs shows that in the first eight months of this year, ASEAN continued to be China's largest trading partner. China's total imports and exports with ASEAN amounted to 4.5 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10%, 4 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade, and accounting for 15.7% of China's total foreign trade value during the same period. Of this, exports stood at 2.69 trillion yuan, up by 13.1%, while imports were 1.81 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.7%.

Agricultural trade is an area where China and ASEAN countries exhibit strong complementarity. In recent years, China's imports of agricultural products from ASEAN countries have grown year after year. According to China Customs data, in 2023, ASEAN was the second-largest source of agricultural imports for China, comprising 15.6% of China's total agricultural imports. In the first eight months of this year, China imported 161.34 billion yuan worth of agricultural products from ASEAN, among which dried and fresh fruits, as well as aquatic products for consumption, saw respective growths of 0.6% and 2.7%. Concurrently, vegetables and temperate fruits from China are also well-received in the ASEAN market. During the same period, China's agricultural exports to ASEAN reached 103.43 billion yuan.

Notably, fruit trade has emerged as a standout feature in the agricultural product exchange between China and ASEAN countries. A growing variety of unique fruits from ASEAN nations are making their way into the Chinese market, continually diversifying the "fruit baskets" of Chinese households. On August 9th, the official website of China's General Administration of Customs updated its list of fresh fruits and their exporting countries/regions that have obtained China's inspection and quarantine approval, adding ten new fruit types from seven countries, including coconuts from Vietnam and durians from Malaysia. As more fruit species from ASEAN countries gain access to the Chinese market, an increasing number of ASEAN fruits are gaining popularity among Chinese consumers at even more favorable prices.

China and ASEAN countries boast strong economic complementarities and close collaboration along industrial chains and supply chains. Customs data indicates that in the first eight months of this year, driven by cooperation in sectors such as electronics information, automotive manufacturing, and textiles and apparel, intermediate goods trade between China and ASEAN maintained a positive growth momentum, reaching 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Among these, intermediate goods in electronic information products like integrated circuits, flat panel display modules, computer accessories, and audiovisual components all saw double-digit growth in imports and exports. Meanwhile, exports of furniture parts and lamp parts witnessed growth rates exceeding 20%.

  Continuously Unlocking the Potential for Cooperation  

In 2020, ASEAN ascended to become China's largest goods trading partner, marking a historic breakthrough where China and ASEAN became each other's top trading partners for the first time. Today, China and ASEAN have sustained this milestone for four consecutive years, remaining each other's premier trading partners.

Looking ahead, the prospects are promising. The industry widely acknowledges that the full implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement, coupled with the accelerated advancement of negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0, will facilitate the expansion of合作 domains and sustain the positive trajectory of bilateral trade.

To further promote bilateral trade, Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Commerce Ministry’s Research Institute, suggests several courses of action. Firstly, while sustaining the growth in trade volume, there should be a continuous effort to optimize the structure. The ongoing adjustments in the industrial and supply chain cooperation between China and ASEAN indicate evolving comparative advantages and changing cooperation needs. Adapting swiftly to these changes to enhance the trade structure is imperative, ensuring that both sides' economic and industrial strengths, as well as resource endowments, can be more effectively leveraged.

Secondly, given the distinct characteristics among ASEAN member states, trade cooperation with ASEAN must be strategically planned on a broad scale, but also entail more nuanced, diversified, and tailored approaches going forward. For countries with substantial trade volumes, future cooperation might necessitate consideration of provincial or state-level partnerships, engaging in regional cooperation initiatives, such as developing logistics networks in the Indochina Peninsula and exploring more agile models for intra-regional trade.

Moreover, upgrading free trade agreements (FTAs) can further improve the trade environment. In recent years, the strengthening of bilateral trade's institutional frameworks between China and ASEAN has established a more stable trade outlook, fostering an environment conducive to unlocking trade potential. In the future, beyond negotiating and updating FTAs, emphasis should also be placed on enforcing these agreements effectively, enhancing their utilization rates, and fostering mutual understanding and trust to mitigate the impact of trade frictions on trade growth.